The travel industry is making a resurgence after several years of disruption caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, with nearly 4 billion passengers boarding international flights in 2022, up from fewer than 2 billion in 2020. However, this revival in travel is raising concerns due to its environmental impact. The tourism sector is estimated to contribute 8%–10% of global greenhouse gas emissions. Additionally, traditional holiday destinations are facing increasingly unpleasant and hazardous conditions during high summer, driven by climate change.
Over the past year, record-breaking climate events, including heatwaves and wildfires, have affected regions in Europe, Asia, and North America. Rising temperatures are making traditional holiday destinations less appealing, prompting questions about how tourism will adapt to these changes.
One of the most environmentally damaging aspects of travel is flying, with a single passenger on a short-haul flight responsible for releasing about 154g of CO₂ per kilometer traveled, according to UK data. As the effects of climate change intensify, there are concerns that some traditional destinations may become too hot during the summer months.
Researchers have proposed the concept of a “poleward shift” in tourism, where destinations further to the north and south become more appealing due to rising temperatures in traditionally hot regions. For instance, Scandinavia and the UK might experience longer holiday seasons.
Coastal areas, which account for about half of global tourism, face challenges due to rising sea levels. In the Caribbean, approximately 29% of resort properties could be partially or fully inundated with one meter of sea-level rise. Beach destinations like Sardinia are also vulnerable to flooding and storms, which may affect tourism in the near future.
Climate change impacts will extend beyond coastal areas, affecting city breaks in destinations like Porto, Portugal, where more severe heat is expected. Mountainous regions will also see shorter ski seasons due to accelerated snowmelt.
While travel patterns will eventually evolve in response to changing conditions, established destinations will need to adapt to withstand challenges like extreme heat, rising sea levels, and other climatic factors. The future of tourism will likely involve a shift to cooler destinations and a focus on domestic markets to reduce carbon emissions.